+0.8% GDP growth expected in the third quarter
Inflation and very weak growth… The cocktail is rather explosive. The forecasts of the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (HCP) for the third quarter do come in an international environment still marked by great uncertainties. In any case, these forecasts are far from being encouraging: barely 0.8% versus 8.7% in the same quarter of 2021. The dynamics of trade at the global level would depend on the evolution of inflation, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the sanitary situation, and the impact of tighter monetary policies on investment and consumption. Under these conditions, global demand addressed to Morocco would not exceed 4.2%, versus 7.3% in the third quarter of last year. Domestically, demand is likely to be weak. A slowdown in household consumption and investment is expected. Since the second quarter, a deceleration in domestic demand has been observed. Final consumption remained moderate in an inflationary environment characterized by the decline in rural incomes. In the wake of the increase in operating expenditure, general government consumption remained at 5.9% while that of households did not exceed 1.8% when it stood at 13.6% last year. “The slight surplus in domestic consumption may have been fueled by an increase in the flow of consumer loans, a reduction in savings and by the continued strengthening of transfers from Moroccans living abroad. The surplus may have largely benefited spending on services, in particular health and communication, while spending on manufactured goods, especially imported ones, may have fallen significantly”, indicates the HCP in its latest economic note.
Investment also declined: -1.3% instead of +7.3% a year earlier. This situation can be explained, among other things, by “the continued destocking of companies that began at the beginning of the year, particularly in the extractive industries sector and by the slowdown in investment in construction”. On the other hand, in industry, investment “improved slightly” in line with the increase in imports of industrial capital goods.
Khadija MASMOUDI
