Avocado: Morocco in the big league

The global avocado market is going through a phase of intense transformation. Rising volumes, price wars, new outlets: the balance is shifting, with direct consequences for Morocco, which has posted a second consecutive record season but is seeing its margins erode. In this shifting landscape, Latin America continues to dominate. Mexico, the world’s leading producer, is forecasting a 5% rise in production, and shipments from Peru are exploding.

In Europe, Hass avocados from Peru are flooding the markets, particularly in Italy, where prices have fallen to as low as 9 euros a case. The same is true in Germany, where volumes destined for the European Union jumped by 37% in the first quarter, putting the spot market under pressure.

This global glut is dragging down prices, despite continuing strong demand. In France, sales remain buoyant, but the season could end earlier than expected. In Spain, the main re-export hub for Europe, Moroccan imports soared 73% year-on-year. The kingdom has thus become a key player in the European logistics triangle, alongside Peru and Mexico. Against this tense backdrop, Morocco is nonetheless managing holding its own. The 2024/2025 agricultural season closed in April with historic volumes: between 100,000 and 110,000 tons exported, compared with 60,000 last year.

This is the first time the country has broken the symbolic 100,000-ton barrier. While the performance in terms of volumes is undeniable, prices experienced a clear erosion, falling by 21% to 35% depending on the market. This drop can be explained by growing competition, but also by a more realistic re-evaluation of margins after two exceptional seasons.

For Moroccan growers, this trend calls for a strategic readjustment. “ The yields are there, but the market is imposing a new rigor on us”, comments an exporter from the Gharb region. He adds: “We can no longer be satisfied with just achieving volumes; we also need to guarantee quality, fine-tune logistics and diversify outlets.” Clearly, the Moroccan sector’s maturity now depends on its ability to adapt to global competition, where overproduction can quickly become a double-edged sword.

This change of scale comes at a time when climatic conditions in Morocco have been particularly favorable this year, with little exposure to hot winds (chergui) and good grade retention.

This quality advantage enables Morocco to position itself in the most demanding markets, notably in Northern Europe and Germany, where superior calibers are highly prized.

A.Bo