Cash amnesty: A temporary boost to bank liquidity
The year 2024 marked a turning point for the Moroccan economy with the launch of a tax amnesty to regularize undeclared liquid assets. This initiative allowed considerable liquidity to be reintegrated into the formal banking circuit, and offers new prospects for boosting the financial market.
However, beyond its immediate effects, this operation raises essential questions about the structural issues linked to liquidity and the informal economy.
Indeed, the amnesty enabled a significant influx of liquidity into the banking system during the first week of January, reducing tensions on the interbank market. This temporary strengthening of the cash position enabled Bank Al-Maghrib to reduce its weekly cash injections from MAD 156 billion (USD 15,6 billion) to MAD 144 billion (USD 14.4 billion). Seven-day advances, key indicators of bank liquidity, also fell, from 60 billion to 53 billion dirhams (USD 6 billion to USD 5.3 billion), signaling a momentary easing of pressure on banks.
This improvement, while significant, remains fragile. The banking sector’s structural liquidity deficit remains a cause for concern, and although refinancing requirements have fallen in the short term, they are set to continue rising in the years ahead. According to the central bank’s forecasts, banks’ refinancing requirements should reach MAD 164.6 billion (USD 16.4 billion) in 2025, rising to MAD 192.3 billion (USD 19.23 billion). in 2026, illustrating the persistence of long-term financial challenges. “Although the amnesty has provided a breath of fresh air, it does not solve the underlying problems of the money market. Morocco will have to diversify its sources of financing to reduce the banking sector’s dependence on the central bank (BAM)’s interventions”, explained a financial markets professional.
In fact, at the end of the past week, the average bank liquidity deficit had widened by +12.39%, reaching -148.46 billion dirhams (minus USD 14.84 billion). At the same time, Bank Al-Maghrib’s 7-day advances fell by 6.87 billion dirhams (USD 687 million) to 53.3 billion dirhams (USD 5.3 billion). This decline, although in line with previous reductions, underlines the persistent tensions on the money market. However, with a view to stabilization, Bank Al-Maghrib plans to increase the pace of its intervention in the money market. The volume of 7-day advances will rise to 57.4 billion dirhams (USD 5.74 billion) over the next period, compared with 53.3 billion (USD 5.33 billion) currently.
Fédoua Tounassi
