Economic juncture: Limited damage in agriculture
It is against a backdrop of an increasingly uncertain international situation that the new contours of the economic situation are taking shape. The latest economic report from the Ministry of Economy and Finance only confirms this volatility. Barely getting out of the pandemic phase, economic operators must now deal with tensions in Eastern Europe and galloping inflation in the price of raw materials. Nevertheless, the balance of the major macroeconomic aggregates, albeit fragile, remains. At the primary level, the negative effect of the rainfall deficit at the beginning of the year would have been mitigated by the heavy rainfall in March and April 2022.
According to the Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasting (DEPF), the 2021-2022 agricultural campaign posted a good performance in terms of exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. A record volume is said to have been recorded by citrus exports, despite the unfavorable weather conditions that characterized this campaign. At the end of the first four months of the year, the export turnover of the agriculture and agribusiness sector reached 32.8 billion Moroccan Dirhams (MAD), up by 15.4%.
■ Cereal production down sharply
Concerning the three main cereals, the first forecasts of the department in charge of Agriculture count on a production of the order of 32 million quintals. These expected results would be down by 69% compared to those of the previous exceptional campaign, due to the difficult climatic conditions which marked the beginning of the year, in particular the significant and generalized rainfall deficit. Overall, the government’s effort and the improved climatic conditions in March and April, which allowed good establishment and development of spring crops, have largely contributed to a resumption of the momentum in the agricultural sector.
■ Phosphate saves the day
Regarding industry, the production index of the extractive sector fell for the second consecutive quarter, i.e. -10.1% in the first quarter of 2022, after a drop of 1.9% in the fourth quarter 2021 and an increase of 6.3% in the first quarter of the same year. The growth in the value of exports of phosphates and derivatives is further consolidated, benefiting from the notable increase in the prices of phosphate products. Thus, these exports increased by 98.6% to 36.1 billion Dirhams, at the end of April 2022, including an increase of 104.1% for phosphate derivatives and 58.1% for phosphate rock.
■ Tourism finally sees the end of the tunnel
After two years of barren spell, tourism is recovering. During April 2022, the third month after the reopening of national borders, tourism receipts continued to consolidate. This development should accelerate in the coming months, following the easing of travel restrictions, which came into force on May 18, 2022, and other government measures aimed at supporting and reviving activity in the sector, analysts of the Ministry of Economy and Finance say. In addition to the emergency program in favor of the tourism sector, Operation Crossing the Strait 2022 was launched on June 05, 2022, with, in particular, its new facilitation measures and its extension aimed at offering the best reception and transit conditions to Moroccans residing abroad.
Abdessamad NAÏMI
