Good and bad news from the census

The 2024 General Census of Population and Housing (RGPH) provides an accurate snapshot of Morocco’s demographic dynamics. The results, published by the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning, reveal trends that highlight both opportunities and challenges for public policy and economic development. Urbanization, regional distribution and household growth play crucial roles here, with potential impacts on the country’s strategic choices. Among the key findings of this census is the decline in the population growth rate, which fell from 1.25% between 2004 and 2014 to 0.85% over the last decade. This slowdown could be interpreted, among other things, as a sign of stability in terms of demographic pressure. But it could also be the source of major challenges in terms of workforce renewal and ageing, particularly in rural areas, where the growth rate is limited to 0.22%.

■ Imbalance

Five regions account for over 70% of the population, led by Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, and Tangiers-Tétouan-Al Hoceima. The rest of the population is spread across the Kingdom’s other regions, ranging from 3.20 million in the Souss-Massa region to 220,000 in Dakhla-Oued Eddahab. The imbalance in geographical distribution could exacerbate regional inequalities. This would require a stronger regionalization policy to boost economic activity and the attractiveness of less populated areas.

■ Rising urbanization, pressure on infrastructure

The 2024 census confirms the continuing dynamic of urbanization.

The urban population now represents 62.8% of the total population, up from 60.4% in 2014. This represents an average annual increase of 1.24%. The regions of Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (92.4%), Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (80.4%), Casablanca-Settat (73.3%) and Rabat-Salé-Kénitra (70.7%) boast the highest urbanization rates, while Marrakech-Safi (46.0%) and Drâa-Tafilalet (36.7%) remain predominantly rural. Optimists will see this progression as an opportunity for the development of modern infrastructures and a potential engine for economic growth, with key cities able to catalyze investment. The pessimists will say that the growth of the urban population poses real challenges: heavy pressure on resources, infrastructure, transport, housing, etc. Demographic concentration in major cities, particularly Casablanca with its 3.236 million inhabitants, is putting considerable pressure on infrastructure, resources, transport, and housing. In major conurbations such as Casablanca and Rabat, this increased demand is already contributing to real estate inflation, making access to housing increasingly difficult for many households.

■ More households: an economic opportunity

One of the most striking results of the census is the significant increase in the number of households, reaching 9.27 million, with average annual growth of 2.4% between 2014 and 2024. At the same time, average household size is declining, moving from 4.6 to 3.9 persons. This reflects changing family structures and perhaps the rise of more individualized lifestyles. One will certainly have to wait for detailed statistics from the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (HCP) to better decipher this phenomenon. From an economic point of view, the increase in the number of households translates into greater demand for housing, domestic equipment and local services, stimulating the real estate sector and creating new opportunities for consumer goods companies.

■ An inclusive integration policy The increase in the foreign population, at a rate of 5.6% per year, also calls for inclusive integration policies to ensure fair access for all to essential services. This integration represents a major socio-economic challenge, reinforcing the need to develop services and infrastructures adapted to the needs of diversified populations.

Facts and figures

■ Total population: 36.8 million, including 36.68 million Moroccans and 148,152 foreigners.

■ Population growth: the average annual growth rate fell to 0.85% over the last decade. It was 1.25% during the period 2004-2014.

■ Urbanization: the urban population has reached 23.1 million, with an urbanization rate of 62.8%, compared with 60.4% in 2014.

■ Regional distribution: Five regions account for over 70% of the population: Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fez-Meknès, and Tangiers-Tétouan-Al Hoceima.

■ Households: 9.27 million, with an average household size of 3.9 persons.

Khadija MASMOUDI