Grain: Harvest Below the Decade Average
In a report published at the end of March 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that, despite recent rainfall in Morocco, the country’s wheat harvest will remain below the ten-year average.
“Production will slightly exceed the drought-affected levels of 2024, but the warm and dry weather at the start of the growing season, combined with reduced planted area, will limit overall wheat output,” the report states.
Entitled “Morocco: Grain and Feed Annual”, this 13-page document was prepared by Mohamed Fardaoussi, Agricultural Specialist at the U.S. Embassy in Morocco, and approved by Benjamin Rau, Agricultural Attaché for North Africa. It forecasts a 2025/26 marketing year production of 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) of soft wheat, 1.1 MMT of durum wheat, and 700,000 metric tons of barley.
These estimates are broadly in line with last year’s figures, which stood at 1.7 MMT of soft wheat, and 0.7 MMT and 0.6 MMT for durum wheat and barley, respectively, according to Morocco’s National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Legumes (ONICL).
The USDA bases its estimates on field visits conducted in March 2025, which “confirmed that wheat and barley crops across Morocco are exhibiting below-average vegetation growth, especially in the southern regions of Marrakech-Tensift-El Haouz and Souss-Massa.” Regarding imports, the report anticipates 7.3 MMT of soft wheat imports, compared to 0.9 MMT of barley, representing an increase of about 42% compared to the ten-year average.
Major Challenges
The 2025 agricultural season is facing significant challenges, the report notes, the foremost being a prolonged drought. The “severe lack of rainfall” led to delayed planting, particularly in the southern regions, where sowing was not completed until the first week of January 2025. While the Ministry initially projected 5 million hectares of cultivated land, persistent drought conditions and poor rainfall led to widespread discouragement among farmers, with many abandoning their initial sowing plans. As a result, only 40% of the initially targeted area was sown, amounting to 2 million hectares, the report adds. Crops sown earlier in the season are reported to be significantly weaker and are expected to yield well below average, due to the prolonged dry conditions from December to February. However, crops planted later in the season show more promising conditions.
A.O.
