Growth BMI-Fitch Solutions: Revises Its Forecasts for Morocco
Following recent data published by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), BMI-Fitch Solutions has revised its economic outlook for Morocco. According to its report “Moroccan Growth Will Pick Up in 2025 & 2026”, GDP growth for 2025 is now projected at 4.8%, slightly down from the previous forecast of 5%. Despite the downgrade, this would still represent the fastest growth rate since 2021.
On March 31, the HCP released figures indicating that Morocco’s national economic growth slowed to 3.7% in Q4 2024, compared to 4.2% during the same period the previous year. Non-agricultural activities rose by 4.4%, while the agricultural sector contracted by 4.9%. This growth driven primarily by domestic demand occurred in a context of contained inflation but increasing financing needs for the economy.
Despite the downward revision, BMI-Fitch economists maintain that their forecasts remain above both the market consensus and the Moroccan government’s projections, which stand at 3.9% and 3.8% respectively. They foresee growth accelerating over the coming quarters, supported by robust domestic demand and an improved trade balance.
Although food prices spiked during Ramadan, BMI-Fitch Solutions expects inflation to remain contained in 2025, thanks to lower global commodity prices and a gradual recovery in domestic food supply chains.
Remittance flows are expected to remain strong, bolstered by a more dynamic economic environment in Europe. Additionally, increased public sector wage spending and a higher minimum wage will contribute to rising household incomes. Combined, these factors are set to support real income growth, encouraging higher discretionary spending. As a result, private consumption growth is forecast to accelerate from 3.2% in 2024 to 4.1% in 2025, contributing 2.2 percentage points to overall GDP growth. Fixed investment will continue to play a key role, also adding 2.2 percentage points to real GDP growth in 2025.
FDI Inflows to Remain Strong
Monetary easing is expected to keep real borrowing costs low. BMI-Fitch Solutions forecasts that Bank Al-Maghrib will lower its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2% by the end of 2025, following a 25 basis point cut in March 2025 and a 50 basis point cut in 2024. With capacity utilization according to BAM’s business outlook survey near record highs, economists believe firms will look to ramp up capital expenditures to support output expansion.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are also expected to remain robust after a 55.4% increase in 2024, particularly in the automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy sectors.
Morocco’s strategic geographic position, favorable business climate, and infrastructure investments in preparation for the 2030 FIFA World Cup co-hosted with Spain and Portugal will continue to attract substantial foreign capital. The government’s expansionary fiscal policy will further support public investment spending. Altogether, BMI-Fitch Solutions projects a 7.1% increase in fixed investment in 2025.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY
