Growth: Recovery on hold | L’Economiste
A T the start of this year, forecasts are in full swing. This time, it is the national statistics agency which has detailed its projections for the current year. This is an average development scenario that takes into account an average crop year.
The forecasts of the High Commission for Planning (HCP) presented by Ayache Khellaf, Secretary General, speak of a recovery of the Moroccan economy “based on the premise of a recovery in agriculture”. Growth should not exceed 3.3% in 2023, a level which remains less solid compared to the pre-crisis period. One must continue to hope for clement skies because the rains of last December alone are not enough. This is however not the only risk that looms since the national economy will have to evolve in a context marked by the fear of a recession of the main trading partners, a tightening of international financial conditions, and the maintenance of prices at high levels. The HCP’s projections also take into account the uncertainties related in particular to the evolution of the war in Ukraine, to the evolution of interest rates, and to epidemic and climatic risks. With the slowdown in world trade, demand for Moroccan goods and services will be strongly impacted: its growth rate will drop to 3.2% versus 7.6% in 2022, and the net external demand would maintain its negative contribution to economic growth at minus 0.2 points.
The main driver of growth remains domestic demand (+3.2%), which should contribute by 3.5 points to growth. At this level, household consumption will accelerate slightly due to the expected increase in agricultural income and the strong level of remittances from Moroccans living abroad. Last year, household consumption was impacted by falling farm incomes and soaring inflation, and it is the consolidation of external revenues, particularly from Moroccans residing abroad , which limited its slowdown to 2.2%. Domestic final consumption should post an increase of 3.4%, thus contributing to 2.7 growth points in 2023. The government should continue to support the economy via a significant increase in public investment, which should reach 300 billion Dirhams (USD 30 billion). This being so, the share of gross investment in GDP is not expected to exceed 31.5%.
Still in the case of the medium scenario taking into account an average crop year, the added value of the primary sector would increase by 9% in 2023. “The risks of the return of the specter of drought after the relatively abundant rainfall during the month of December 2022 are still likely. However, this is not the only challenge facing the agricultural sector”, underlines Khellaf Ayache. The agricultural sector should redefine its development strategy in favor of strengthening food sovereignty and the preservation of the environment while improving the incomes of farmers strongly impacted by the recurrence of drought. Excluding agriculture, the long-awaited major recovery has not yet materialized.
Khadija MASMOUDI
