Growth: Recovery under scrutiny
With a first-quarter GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, the year 2025 opens on a note of cautious optimism. This performance is based on several factors: a return to winter precipitation close to seasonal norms, and a stabilization of prices on international markets. However, these projections remain sensitive to climate and geopolitical uncertainties.
In its economic outlook, the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (HCP) highlights the structural vulnerabilities of an economy still dependent on agricultural hazards. The low rainfall recorded at the end of 2024, 60.6% below historical averages, could reduce growth by 0.8 points if the trend continues into 2025. Added to this are persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, likely to increase energy import costs and maintain inflationary pressure.
Despite these challenges, encouraging signs are emerging. More dynamic European demand should boost exports, which should grow by 7.1% in the first quarter of 2025, after 6.2% in the previous quarter. At the same time, imports should slow, thanks to a moderation in domestic demand.
«The contribution of foreign trade would weigh less heavily on activity at the start of 2025», says the HCP. The economic picture for 2024 was mixed. After modest growth of 2.4% in the first half of the year, a clear acceleration was observed in Q3, reaching 4.3%, thanks to buoyant domestic and foreign demand. Non-agricultural sectors grew by 5.1%, with outstanding performances in chemicals (+18.2%), automotive (+16.1%), and textiles (+5.3%).
However, the fourth quarter saw a slowdown, with growth limited to 3%, due to a moderation in investment and a loss of momentum in household consumption (+3.2% compared with +3.9% in the previous quarter).
At the same time, the economy’s financing requirements reached 3.8% of the quarterly GDP in the fourth quarter, leading to an increase in Treasury and corporate indebtedness.
This situation was partially offset by accommodating monetary policies. The central bank (Bank Al-Maghrib) reduced its key rate to 2.50%, consolidating the stabilization of interbank rates.
Khadija MASMOUDI
