Inflation Eases Amid Food Price Relief
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 0.3% decline in March 2025, according to the latest data from the High Commission for Planning (HCP). This decrease comes against the backdrop of an economic recovery, with GDP growth estimated at 4.2% in the first quarter, driven by market services, extractive industries, and the construction sector.
The return to growth has been accompanied by a rebound in household consumption, up 4.5%, supported by measures such as wage increases and lower income tax. At the same time, Bank Al-Maghrib continued to ease its monetary policy, lowering the key interest rate to 2.25%, which helped reduce rates on financial markets and revived stock market activity.
The monthly drop in the CPI is mainly due to a 0.7% decline in the food price index. The most significant decreases were observed in meat (–4.7%), dairy products and eggs (–2%), as well as oils and fats (–1.4%). However, this overall easing masks persistent increases in certain segments, particularly vegetables (+4.9%) and fruits (+1.7%), highlighting the high volatility of fresh produce prices, which remain sensitive to climatic conditions.
Non-food prices remained generally stable. Fuel prices continued to decline (–1.8%), following the easing of international energy prices. The transport category as a whole fell by 0.6%, helping to curb inflation, while other components of this category remained sluggish.
Year-on-year, the overall inflation index remains up by 1.6%, driven by food prices (+2.2%) and non-food services (+1.1%). Certain sectors continue to post strong growth: restaurants and hotels rose by 3.9%, while the housing index increased by 3.7%. In contrast, the transport sector maintained its downward trend (–2.4%), extending a trajectory that began in late 2023.
Core inflation which excludes volatile and regulated prices also declined, by 0.6% in March, with an annual increase limited to 1.5%. This development confirms a reduction in pressure on prices of manufactured goods and services, pointing to a more structurally disinflationary environment.
Khadija MASMOUDI
