Moroccan avocado, the flipside of success
Morocco reports a record avocado season. With production estimated at between 120,000 and 130,000 tons, and exports approaching 110,000 ton, the industry has reached a historic milestone. The record has been broken, the figures are impressive.
But behind this apparent success lies an unresolved equation: produce more, and earn less? The commercial success of Moroccan avocados has been accompanied by a significant drop in prices, revealing a structural fragility in the sector’s economic model. Buoyed by good weather conditions, the 2024/2025 agricultural season was ideally timed. Uniform flowering, no thunderstorms and moderate temperatures. These conditions enabled optimum fruit development and a bumper harvest, particularly in the Loukkos and Gharb regions. On the logistical front too, infrastructure held up well, facilitating the export of unprecedented volumes.
The traditional markets of Spain, France and the Netherlands absorbed a large share of the flows, to which were added new outlets such as the Nordic countries and Turkey. But as cargoes poured in, prices contracted. On average, rates were down 20% with respect to the previous season. A significant drop, all the more paradoxical in that it occurred against a backdrop of sustained demand. It was the volume of supply, rather than demand, that exerted downward pressure. Other exporting origins, such as Peru, Colombia, and Israel, also flooded the European market at the same time, accentuating competition and reducing margins.
Imbalance in production management
This tension between volume and price is not just a market effect. It also reflects an imbalance in production management. One of the most striking phenomena of the season was the deliberate delay in harvesting. Last January, almost 50% of Moroccan volumes had not yet been harvested, with some growers preferring to wait for prices to rise. This opportunistic behavior contributed to disrupting supply flows, concentrating volumes over a short period and reinforcing imbalances. Although the end of the season was better spread out, with only a two-week gap, the episode left its mark on market fluidity. The dilemma is now clear: how can we continue to increase volumes without compromising profitability?
While the expansion of international outlets provides a safety valve, it is not enough to correct a race-to-the-bottom logic that undermines the entire chain. All the more so as export markets are sensitive to quality, regular deliveries and the sizes required. Abundance alone guarantees neither competitiveness nor stability. The experience of this campaign highlights the need for closer coordination between players. The absence of a collective strategy on harvesting schedules, price volatility and the late adjustment of volumes to market absorption capacities are all warning signs. The Moroccan avocado sector has reached a turning point. Quantitative success is undeniable, but it must now be accompanied by a qualitative mastery of economic equilibrium.
A.Bo.
