OPEC+ strategy: What consequences for Morocco?

The announcement by Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ oil producers of an increase in oil production quotas for August should ease the pressure on world prices. Brent crude oil, which was trading at around $75 a barrel at the start of the year, has been trading between $65 and $70 for the past few days.

To justify its decision, OPEC+ pointed to a number of factors, including the stability of the global economic outlook and the current soundness of market fundamentals, as evidenced by the low level of oil inventories. In fact, OPEC+’s decision to increase oil production could lead to a potential moderation in energy costs, which would help the recovery.

This is a major issue for major institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD, which monitor inflation and economic stability.

For Morocco, a net importer of oil, any drop in crude prices would be a breath of fresh air, lightening the energy bill and potentially curbing imported inflation. This could improve the balance of trade and support household purchasing power. According to Moroccan Foreign exchange Office (Office des Changes) data to the end of May 2025, the energy bill continues to fall, by 6.5%, or -3.15 billion Dirhams (-USD 350 million). This fall to around 45.60 billion Dirhams (USD 5 billion) is mainly attributable to a 14.6% drop in supplies of gas oils and fuel oils, due to a 19.3% fall in prices. This was despite a 5.9% increase in imported quantities.

The Kingdom, which is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports (notably for transport, industry and power generation), mechanically benefits from the fall in crude oil prices. If the price of oil stabilizes permanently below $70 a barrel, Morocco could save several billion in imports, a welcome boost for its trade balance and foreign exchange reserves. This easing of prices also offers the government leverage to contain inflation, fueled in part by energy costs. A sustained fall in the price of a barrel of oil could make it possible to maintain butane gas subsidies without further burdening the state budget.

However, the quota increase decided by OPEC+ could have only a limited effect if global demand fails to keep pace, or if geopolitical tensions intensify, particularly in the Middle East. As a net importer, Morocco remains exposed to unforeseen shocks. A further spike in prices, due to a regional conflict or supply crisis, could reverse the expected benefits of this overproduction strategy. In  addition, the Kingdom’s energy dependence on international markets makes the transition to renewable energies ever more urgent, a field in which Morocco is asserting itself as a regional leader.

In its numerous analyses, the OECD, concerned about global economic stability, considers that an increase in OPEC+ production could help moderate oil prices, thereby reducing inflationary pressures. Economists stress the importance of stable supply for growth in importing countries and the resilience of the global economy to energy shocks.

F.Z.T.