Risk of rising bankruptcies | L’Economiste

The expiry of tax benefits, the end of moratoria on loan repayments, as well as the monetary tightening… These are all risks that threaten the viability of businesses this year. More precisely, the Dun & Bradstreet World / Info­risk study on bankruptcies in 2021 predicts “an increase in insolven­cies in the second half of 2022”, especially since the Covid episode is not entirely over, not to mention the persistent supply chain disrup­tions. In Morocco, as elsewhere, the Government has put in place support measures to deal with the economic repercussions of the health crisis. Taken in 2020, some of these mea­sures have been extended until 2021 or even 2022. This has been a lifeline for many companies on the edge of the abyss, thus keeping defaults low. Except that the means put in place differ from one country to another.

In Morocco, the guaranteed loans that have been granted, the postponement of the tax filing deadlines, the assis­tance provided by the Social Security agency (CNSS) to failing compa­nies, and other factors have enabled com­panies to hold on, but without managing to save everyone, as evidenced by the statistics on bankruptcies in 2021 which increased by 59%. In any case, the cumulative budgetary mea­sures taken by the various countries represented 18% of the world GDP. This has resulted in a significant drop in insolvencies, and in some countries they have reached their lowest level in ten years. “Much of this stems from advanced economies, which on ave­rage have provided fiscal support to the tune of 28.4% of their GDP”, the study points out. This is a level that exceeds by several points the stimulus packages pro­vided by these economies in response to the Global Finan­cial Crisis of 2008 (pac­kages worth just 2.6% of their GDP). During the pandemic, access to low-cost liquidity has been a defining feature of financial markets. In addition, the total stock of debt securities (amount borrowed on the domestic and international mar­kets, raised by non-financial compa­nies) increased sharply: it amounted to 19.05 billion dollars in June 2021, indicates the study based on data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

For their part, central banks around the world moved quickly to ease moneta­ry conditions. “32 of the 35 countries for which data is available have cut their policy rates in response to the pandemic. These economies have, on average, lowered their policy rate by 123 basis points, according to BIS data. This is a significant drop, given that the average policy rate of these 32 economies stood at 2.01% in March 2020”, explain the experts. Other measures include changes to ban­kruptcy laws to give businesses more breathing room and prevent hostile takeovers by predatory corporations.

Khadija MASMOUDI