Telecoms: 5G postponed indefinitely?

Rolling out 5G on the Moroccan market in 2023 is a mission impossible. The so-called fifth-generation technology (networks and services) is theoretically supposed to be rolled out in a few months. Indeed, according to the General Guidance Note (NOG) for the development of the telecom sector, the launch of 5G is scheduled for the year 2023. Moreover, preparing for the arrival of 5G is a major challenge for the coming years.

Morocco has set itself the goal of enabling the launch of 5G before the end of the guidance note. Today, many telecoms market analysts declare, with supporting arguments, to be skeptical about meeting the schedule. “The plan of the General Orientation Note will not be able to achieve the goals that have been set. The real goal lies in the deployment of fiber, the aim being to reach 20% in 2023, in other words, almost 2 million FTTH sockets”. Today, however, some 450,000 catches have barely been installed. This represents almost one quarter of the goal assigned for 2023. Moreover, in 2025, it will be required to increase that share to 50% of the market, according to the guidelines as set by the NOG. This corresponds to 5 million FTTH sockets (Fiber To The Home) to be installed to replace ADSL. This means that we are still far from the mark! “We are sure and certain that the ANRT  (National Agency for Telecom Regulation) will not achieve the goals of the NOG 2023”, says a telecoms expert. In addition, nearly 9,000 radio sites will have to be fiberized, that is to say that they have neither 4G nor 5G. However, in order to have 5G, the pylons and stations must be fiber. “5G is necessarily fiber”, said  the same expert, who added that “It would be easy to attribute this delay in deployment to the health crisis or to the economic situation… The goals could have been achieved if the right decisions had been made. This means opening up the market and regulations to infrastructure operators, and it is the latter who will ensure pooling in coordination with local authorities, regions, and municipalities”. Another major constraint is the cost of investment which is exorbitant. Clearly, “it is impossible for each operator to roll out its own network itself”, notes the expert. Today, the alternative lies in opening up the market to operators dedicated to infrastructure to speed up pooling and sharing. The opposite scenario, that is to say the status quo, involves further strengthening the weight and monopoly position of the incumbent operator. Today, from consistent sources, world-class investors are showing interest in the Moroccan telecom infrastructure market. Investors include  a  GAFAM giant, Google itself. “ These potential investors have presented their prerequisites for investing… But at present, the market does not respond favorably to this type of prerequisite”, says a source close to the public authorities. 

Amin RBOUB