The false drop in the unemployment rate

Despite the slowdown in the economy, unemployment declined in 2022. Its rate fell to 11.6% from 12.3% in 2021, but on closer inspection, the apparently good news is unfortunately not a good one actually. The decline of 0.6 points is not due to economic performance. Growth slowed down last year: it did not exceed 1.3% after the 7.9% rebound recorded in 2021.

This decline in the unemployment rate can be explained in particular by the fall in the activity rate, the exact level of which will be revealed in the coming weeks on the occasion of the detailed publication of the employment and unemployment figures for the year 2022. In the meantime, one thing is certain: this drop refers in particular to two recurring phenomena which constitute challenges to be met: the scarcity of opportunities and the poor quality of the jobs created, which pushes discouraged people to leave the labor market, especially young people and women. In the report on the employment landscape in Morocco, the World Bank and the High Commission for Planning explain that several factors contribute to these challenges: high population growth, low employment intensity of economic activity, slow improvement in the efficiency of the use of production factors, and slow structural changes. It must also be said that the successive crises have left their mark: during the 2010 decade, and following the shock of the international financial crisis of 2007, the economy lost 75,000 jobs out of its job creation potential.

“The growth dynamic of our stock of physical capital fell by 0.7 points compared to the 2000-2009 decade. In 2022, the losses are around 22,000 jobs in the wake of the Covid-19 health crisis and stood at -1.3 points in terms of the growth dynamic of the capital stock”, noted Ahmed Lahlimi, High Commissioner for Planning during the presentation of the economic budget (see also L’Economiste No. 6432 of Monday, January 16, 2022).

This being said, the decrease in the unemployment rate is also due to jobs generated by tertiary activities which have offset the losses recorded in the construction and agricultural sectors. Tertiary activities benefited from the recovery of the tourism and transport sectors following the lifting of travel restrictions, the strengthening of air services, and the resumption of Operation Crossing the Strait 2022.

Khadija MASMOUDI