The super stalled growth II

“The economic recovery expected for 2022 will not take place”. This assertion by the Centre Marocain de Conjoncture (CMC) alone reflects the economic difficulties facing Morocco. The previously optimis­tic forecasts of CMC are now fal­ling into pessimism. They join those of international institutions (1.1% for the IMF) and of the Moroc­can central bank (0.7%). The High Commissioner´s Office for Planning (HCP) has also revised its forecasts in particular for the first and second quarters (1.2% and 1.8% respecti­vely), thus taking into account the evolution of the international situa­tion and its impacts at the local le­vel. For the CMC, the 4.1% growth rate predicted for July may not be achieved.

At best, the economy will not ex­ceed a rate of 1.8%, thus registering a difference of 2.3 points compared to the first exploratory scenario. At the origin of this situation is the emergence of the new variant of the Omicron coronavirus and the health restrictions which marked the first months of the year. These have been the cause of economic and social damage since whole sections of transport and tourism-related activi­ties have come to a virtual standstill. Then come the bad weather condi­tions and the war in Ukraine. The latter accentuated “the collapse of the potential of national production through the main transmission chan­nels of the effects of the shock which are prices and product supply”.

This year, a significant 14% drop in agricultural value added is expec­ted, due to the delay in the autumn rains and the high temperatures which marked the start of the finan­cial year. Concerning this sector, the central bank’s forecasts are more pessimistic. The Bank forecasts a drop in agricultural added value of 19.8% in 2022, taking into account a cereal harvest of around 25 mil­lion quintals. The central bank also notes that non-agricultural activities should gradually improve, thanks in particular to the easing of health restrictions and to the maintenance of monetary stimulus and sectoral support budgetary measures: 3% on average in 2022. For the CMC, the secondary and tertiary sectors should gradually return to their historical trend but would remain “weakened by the recessionary effects of the health crisis and the conflict in Ukraine”. The secondary and tertiary sectors are expected to contribute about 3.2% and 3.6% respectively to real GDP growth. This economic situation requires, as has been emphasized by interna­tional institutions, the acceleration of reforms to complete a transfor­mative recovery. The reform of the social protection system, of edu­cation, of state-owned enterprises which are stalled… and more gene­rally the development of the private sector with the operationalization of the Mohammed VI Fund for In­vestment, are considered important, even essential.

Khadija MASMOUDI