Wholesale trade and services: Business leaders optimistic
It is high time for a recovery in services and wholesaling. According to the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan), business leaders in the tertiary sector are approaching the second quarter with optimism: transport, logistics, accommodation… several key sectors of the economy are showing positive signs. This augurs a gradual normalization of activity after a mixed first quarter.
In non-financial market services, 55% of business leaders anticipate an increase in overall activity in the second quarter, compared with 13% who expect a decline. This return to growth would be driven in particular by the air transport, land and pipeline transport, warehousing and accommodation sectors. Conversely, certain segments such as postal and courier activities, “programming and broadcasting” and maritime transport are still lagging behind.
A sign of this expected momentum is that 31% of business owners anticipate an increase in demand, while 62% expect it to remain stable. This points to a business environment in recovery phase. The outlook for employment remains cautious: 60% of business owners expect their workforce to remain stable, while 25% are planning to recruit new staff.
The wholesale sector shows a rather favorable outlook. 68% of wholesalers expect overall sales volumes to remain stable, while 26% anticipate an increase. This trend would be driven by the expected recovery in other specialized wholesaling and industrial equipment wholesaling, two segments sensitive to the upturn in investment. By contrast, the domestic goods trade is likely to continue to lose momentum.
As regards orders, 77% of operators expect normal levels, i.e. no particular pressure on order books. The job market is likely to remain stagnant: 84% of business leaders expect their workforce to remain stable. This reflects a cautious wait-and-see attitude in the sector…
A sluggish first quarter in telecoms and transport
The rebound expected in the second quarter comes after a sluggish start to the year. In market services, 53% of companies reported a drop in activity, due in particular to declines in telecommunications, as well as air and sea transport. Conversely, land transport and warehousing services acted as shock absorbers, sustaining a capacity utilization rate of 73%. Order books remained at a level considered normal by 83% of company managers, while 35% reported an increase in headcount. This suggests resilience on the employment front.
In the wholesale sector, the picture was more balanced: 28% of companies reported an increase in sales, particularly in specialized wholesaling and industrial equipment, while communications equipment continued to contract. Employment remained stable in 79% of cases, with inventories of goods deemed normal by 84% of operators, and moderate pressure on prices: 68% reported stability, 28% a decline.
Khadija MASMOUDI
