World Bank: A moderate recovery fraught with difficulties
Against a global economic backdrop marked by a general slowdown and rising trade uncertainties, Morocco is enjoying moderate growth, according to the World Bank. According to its economic outlook (June 2025), Morocco should record economic growth of around 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. These forecasts represent a slight downward revision of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively compared with the projections published in January 2025. However, they remain stable compared with those announced in March.
According to the Bretton Woods institution, the Moroccan economy should improve slightly in 2027, recording growth of 3.6%. This upturn in activity is partly attributed to an expected improvement in weather conditions, which should favor a recovery in agricultural production. Reservoirs in dams for agricultural use reached 5.2 billion cubic meters (m³) for the current crop year, representing a fill rate of around 37%, compared with 30% for the same period last year.
Overall, these figures fall short of the levels needed to drive far-reaching economic transformation, but nonetheless illustrate a certain resilience in the face of global headwinds. Morocco seems to be on a moderate recovery trajectory, but it remains fraught with pitfalls: uncertain climate, industrial weakness, external tensions, trade barriers and the demographic challenge. This calls for urgent structural reforms to build more robust, inclusive growth.
Although growth forecasts are positive, the report also highlights Morocco’s persistent socio-economic challenges, such as the erosion of household purchasing power due to recent inflation. In a country where the economy remains sensitive to rainfall, this dependence on the weather illustrates the persistent vulnerability of the productive fabric. The outlook for industry is less favorable. Industrial activity is set to weaken, weighed down by falling phosphate prices (a traditional pillar of Moroccan exports) and sluggish foreign demand. On the external accounts front, the report warns of a widening current account deficit. This deterioration would result from an increase in domestic demand and growth in imports, contrasting with a more modest export dynamic. In other words, Moroccans are consuming more, but the national economy is struggling to respond with a competitive exportable offering. From a taxation standpoint, Rabat has adopted a rigorous approach. Fiscal policy is likely to remain contractionary this year, a sign that room for maneuver is limited in a context of high debt and growing social needs.
In the medium term, the World Bank warns of the consequences of climate change. Increasingly frequent droughts could seriously affect agriculture, worsen poverty, and slow per capita income growth. Morocco is cited as one of the countries most exposed to these recurring climate shocks. Finally, the report highlights a structural imbalance in the labor market. Growth in the working-age population is outstripping job creation, pointing to growing tensions on the employment front if far-reaching reforms are not implemented quickly.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY
