A mixed start to the year for foreign trade

January does not yet set the trajectory for the year, but it does suggest the major trends. At the start of 2026, trade in goods remains under pressure. Services driven by tourism are mitigating the deterioration in the external balance.
Imports of goods reached MAD 60 billion (USD 6.46 billion) , up 0.4% from MAD 59.75 billion (USD 6.43 billion) a year ago. At the same time, exports fell by 2.7% to MAD 34.5 billion (USD 3.71 billion) from MAD 35.5 billion (USD 3.82 billion) in January 2025. The result was a trade deficit of MAD 25.5 billion (USD 2.744 billion), a 5.1% increase, and a coverage rate of 57.5%.
The energy bill partly explains the moderation in imports. Without this easing, the overall bill would have been higher.
However, this decline does not indicate the future trajectory. Since January, the international context has become more tense. Oil markets have reintroduced a risk premium. Tensions surrounding Iran are reviving questions about the stability of supply, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. For an economy that is a net importer of hydrocarbons, energy remains a direct exposure factor, both in terms of the trade balance and prices via imported inflation.
At the same time, other items are showing significant growth. Finished consumer goods reached MAD 15.5 billion (USD 1.668 billion), up 17.1%. Finished capital goods amounted to MAD 15.39 billion (USD 1.656 billion), up 12.9%. This reflects a sustained level of imports linked to productive investment and industrial equipment. Raw materials rose to MAD 4.1 billion (USD 441 million), up 38.4%. The structure of imports therefore remains dynamic beyond the energy sector alone.
On the export side, sectoral differences persist. The automotive sector grew by 19.1%. Aeronautics gained 8.7%. Conversely, textiles and leather declined by 5.9%, penalized by ready-made clothing. Electronics and electricity declined. In any case, exports are growing, but unevenly.
The picture changes when services are included. Exports reached MAD 26.3 billion (USD 2.83 billion) (+11.6%) compared to MAD 12.3 billion in imports (USD 1.32 billion) (+7.6%). The surplus stands at 14 billion dirhams (USD 1.5 billion) , up 15.4%. Tourism remains the main driver. Travel revenues reached MAD 11.65 billion (USD 1.26 billion), up 19.3%. Expenditure stood at MAD 2.7 billion (USD 291 million), up 2.3%. For the time being, the momentum is maintained. However, it remains sensitive to international flows and the geopolitical climate.

Khadija MASMOUDI