Resilience Driven by Industry and Agricultural Renewal
Morocco’s economy confirms its recovery trajectory in the first quarter of 2026, supported by a convergence of favorable factors: an exceptional agricultural season, strong industrial export performance, and a consolidation of domestic demand. All this unfolds in an international context marked by geopolitical uncertainty, as highlighted in the economic outlook note by the Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF, April 2026, Ministry of Economy and Finance).
■ Agriculture: A Pillar of Domestic Stability
The 2025–2026 agricultural season is delivering record results: cereal production is estimated at 90 million quintals, rainfall is up 54% compared to the 30-year average, and dam fill rates reached 75.7% as of April 20, 2026. Tree crops are also performing strongly: olives +111%, citrus fruits +25%, and dates +55%. However, agri-food exports declined by -3.7% at the end of February, while coastal fishing contracted by -34.3% in volume, weighed down by lower pelagic catches.
■ Export-Oriented Industry Drives Growth
The manufacturing sector continues its momentum, with value added up +4.3% in 2025 and a capacity utilization rate of 77.5%. Industrial exports are particularly strong: automotive +10.3% (34.7% of total exports), aeronautics +16.5%, metallurgy +49.6%, plastics/rubber +71.9%, and electronics +2.5%. In contrast, the extractive sector is declining: crude phosphate production is down -9.9% and exports of phosphates and derivatives have fallen by -16.5% at the end of February, despite a +8.9% rebound in February alone. This reflects logistical tensions linked to the Middle East conflict and dependence on sulfur imports.
■ Energy and Construction: Mixed Signals
National electricity production decreased by -1.7% at the end of February, while consumption increased by +9.7%, resulting in a sharp rise of +81.6% in electricity imports. In construction, cement sales declined by -10.9% in Q1 but returned to growth in March (+2.5%), signaling a gradual recovery following exceptional rainfall and the Ramadan period.
■ Tourism and Transport Lead the Way
Tourism continues to recover: arrivals are up +7%, overnight stays +4%, and travel receipts +22.2% at the end of February. Air transport rose by +7.9% in passenger traffic, while overall port traffic increased by +8.9% in 2025.
Telecommunications posted moderate growth of +1.7% in value added, with mobile and internet subscriber bases up +1.5% and +3.1%, respectively.
■ Domestic Demand: Sustained Consumption and Investment
Near-stable inflation (-0.1% at the end of March) and measures supporting purchasing power are boosting household consumption, backed by growth in consumer credit (+3.9%) and remittances from Moroccans living abroad (+4.2%). Investment is strengthening, with capital goods imports up +14.5%, equipment loans rising +25.6%, and public investment spending increasing by +6.3% at the end of March. Employment also improved, with +249,000 paid jobs created in 2025 and the unemployment rate declining to 13.0% (-0.3 percentage points).
F.Z.T.
