World trade: Morocco is positioning itself in the new race
Global trade is poised to reach a historic milestone of US$35 trillion in 2025, driven in particular by Africa, whose exports are showing the strongest regional growth after East Asia.
Morocco is benefiting from both the growth of South-South trade (+8% over the last four quarters) and the strategic relocation of supply chains (nearshoring and friendshoring). (Photo: AFP)
These are the forecasts of UNCTAD’s «Global Trade Update – December 2025.» In this context, Morocco is emerging as one of the few countries on the continent capable of fully capitalizing on this momentum.
The Kingdom is benefiting from both the boom in South-South trade (up 8% over the last four quarters) and the strategic relocation of supply chains (nearshoring and friendshoring), which are redirecting manufacturing investments towards geographically close and politically stable platforms. This specialization, combined with its trade agreements with the EU and its modern logistics infrastructure (notably the Tangier Med port), positions the country as an essential regional hub. However, UNCTAD warns that over 90% of global trade relies on financial infrastructure concentrated in advanced economies, exposing emerging countries like Morocco to external financial shocks. This issue was explored in the report titled «Trade and Development 2025: On the Brink – Trade, Finance and the Reshaping of the World Economy.» A strengthening dollar or a tightening of international credit conditions (for example, through monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve) can abruptly halt trade flows, even during periods of strong global demand.
Furthermore, with an export diversity index of only 1.8, well below Malaysia (2.8) or Bangladesh (2.8), Morocco remains heavily dependent on a few sectors (phosphates, aerospace, etc.) and markets (EU, West Africa, etc.). Faced with these risks, UNCTAD calls on developing countries to diversify their trading partners, develop local currency payment mechanisms, strengthen the bankability of their projects, and integrate the green transition, particularly through critical minerals, as a lever for attractiveness. For Morocco, the challenge is no longer simply to capture global trade, but to make it resilient to the financial fragilities of the international system.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY
