Growth rebounds but persistent weaknesses
5.5% This is the growth rate recorded by the Moroccan economy in the second quarter of 2025, almost double that observed a year earlier (3%). This is what emerges from the national accounts published by the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (HCP). This performance testifies to the renewed vigor of activity, driven by dynamic domestic demand and the return of agriculture to a positive trajectory. But behind this rebound , the fragility of foreign trade and the worsening need for financing are a reminder of how delicate macroeconomic balances remain.
The challenge today is to transform this cyclical recovery into a sustainable trajectory. This requires the country to strengthen its export competitiveness, diversify its value creation drivers, and reduce its dependence on imports. Without this, growth will remain exposed to the same fragilities throughout each cycle.
The sectoral growth recorded in the second quarter illustrates this contrasting dynamic. The secondary sector posted growth of 7.4% compared to 3.1% a year earlier. The manufacturing industries accelerated (6.9%), electricity and water rebounded strongly (8.9% after a decline of 5.2% in 2024), and construction and public works confirmed its strength (+6.7%). Only the extractive industry slowed (10.9% after 20%).
The tertiary sector, which accounts for the majority of employment, is also growing. But other segments are losing steam , such as transportation and educational and social services.
Agriculture recorded growth of 4.7%, contrasting with the 4.4% decline observed in 2024. If growth accelerates, it is primarily thanks to the strength of domestic demand. Household consumption is experiencing a significant recovery ( +5.1% after 3.3%), contributing three points to growth.
Public spending also continued to grow, with 6.5% in the second quarter (after 5.1% in 2024). Public spending generated a contribution of 1.2 points to GDP.
But the highlight is gross investment, up 18.9% after 14.3% a year earlier.
Fueled by gross fixed capital formation, inventory changes, and acquisitions of valuables, it now accounts for 32.5% of GDP. Its contribution to growth reaches 5.6 points, compared to 4 points in 2024.
In total, domestic demand contributed 9.9 points of growth, well beyond the 7.1 points observed a year earlier. In other words, without it the national economy would have remained sluggish. But this dependence on the internal engine also translates into an increased recourse to imports and a more marked imbalance in foreign trade. Foreign trade continues to play a negative role in growth, erasing part of the gains made internally.
Khadija MASMOUDI
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