Inflation: Between the Ramadan Effect and Geopolitical Caution

While the Moroccan economy is showing remarkable resilience, price trends remain a key concern for households and policymakers. Between a technical year-over-year decline and monthly upward pressures linked to consumption, inflation in Morocco presents a mixed picture.

■ The HCP’s Findings: A Monthly Increase, an Annual Decline
According to the Information Note from the High Commission for Planning regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026, consumer prices rose by 0.5% compared to the previous month. This trend is mainly driven by food products (+0.8%) and, to a lesser extent, by non-food products (+0.3%). However, compared to the same month of the previous year (February 2025), the CPI shows a 0.6% decline. This annual decline is due to a significant decrease in the food price index (-2.0%), which offsets the increase in non-food prices (+0.4%). Core inflation follows a moderate trend: +0.2% month-over-month, but -1.2% year-over-year.

■ Seasonal effects and fuel
A detailed analysis of expenditure items reveals significant disparities, influenced by seasonality (the pre-Ramadan period) and international prices. Food remains the most dynamic category in February. “Fish and seafood” saw a surge of +4.5%, followed by “Fruit” (+2.1%) and “Meat” (+1.6%). Conversely, prices for “Oils and fats” fell by 2.2%. The rise in fresh food prices in February 2026 coincides with the Ramadan period, traditionally marked by strong household demand, which explains the upward pressure on prices for protein and fruit. Among non-food products, the most notable increase was in “Fuel,” up 3.1% month-over-month. Year-over-year, the “Transportation” sector recorded a 2.7% decline, likely reflecting delayed adjustments to fuel prices compared to the previous year.

■ Regional Disparities: Tangiers and Oujda Lead the Way
Inflation does not affect the country uniformly. The HCP report highlights divergent local realities. Cities in the north and east show the strongest monthly increases. Oujda and Tangiers lead the way with +1.4%, followed by Tetouan (+1.2%). Fez, Kenitra, and Al Hoceima recorded a 0.7% increase. Conversely, Safi saw a 0.4% decline, while Guelmim and Errachidia fell by 0.2%. Among major cities, Casablanca, Rabat, and Settat saw a moderate increase of 0.3%, suggesting better price regulation or stronger competition in large urban areas.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY